Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Was 4th down decision the right one for Belichick and Patriots?



So here is the scene...Patriots are up 34-28 with two minutes remaining in the game. It is 4th down and 2 yards to go. As a coach, would you go for it and end the game right then and there or punt the ball deep into the opposing team's side and make them beat you with a notable game-winning drive? Most people would choose to punt the ball and force the opposing team to drive the length of the field to win. Bill Belichick is NOT most people. In a risky move, he decided to go for the win and ended up coming up short. The Indianapolis Colts ended up winning the game, 35-34, and the decision to go for it on 4th down turned into a nightmare for thousands of Patriots fans.

Here is why it was the wrong call...
The Patriots were on their own 28 yard line. By going for it on 4th down, the Colts only had to drive 28 yards to score rather than the 60+ yards they would have had to if the Patriots punted the ball. Also, by electing to go for it on 4th down, Belichick sent a message to his defense that he had no faith in them stopping Peyton Manning and the Colt's offense. It is clear that the Patriot's D isn't what it use to be a couple of years ago. If you are talking about numbers, however, it would make more sense to trust your defense to stop the Colt's offense from going 60+ yards versus only 28.

Here is why it was the right call...
The Patriots vs. Colts rivalry is at its highest. Ever since the Colts stormed back to beat the Patriots in the AFC Championship game a few years ago, it became clear that each team circled the schedule when the two teams met. With that sense of rivalry, it makes sense to make gutsy calls and going for the win when you can. Just think about it this way: would you rather call a play and gain two yards to end the game or punt the ball and allow the opposing offense to score in two minutes? Two minutes is a lot of time for any offense let alone the high-powered Colts offense. The Patriots defense was also clearly exhausted and unable to cover the pass. It is not stretching the truth by any means stating that the defense would have given up the touchdown even if they punted the ball. A lot of statistics have surfaced since the game concluded supporting Belichick's decision to go for it. Based on 4th down conversion percentages and yards per down percentages, Belichick's offense should have gotten those two crucial yards. It just didn't work out for the otherwise successful coach.

The decision of going for it on 4th down will always be a debate whether or not the team is successful or not. We still could be having this debate if the Patriots were successful in gaining those two yards. Gutsy decisions call for harsh criticism by the media and fans. However, taking risks is what sets one coach apart from all the others. Whether or not you believe Belichick made the right call, one thing is still clear: looking back through his coaching history you will see that he has always been a coach who has made the gutsy calls necessary to win. Usually, his decisions pay off. It just happens that this one didn't work out.

1 comment:

  1. I’m a huge fan if the New England patriots! It’s really the only team in sports I keep track of and watch. It was a disappointing moment when the colts won by that one point. I also agree that Belichick is a good coach for football. And yes, the Patriots defiantly need some work on strengthening their defense.

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